Betting on the CFB 2023 season

I am going to use my model and track prediction accuracy for beating Vegas for 2023. Picks will be tracked at 2 accounts will be used to track the model:

  • @PlPredict_all for all FBS games, and
  • @playoffPredict for high-confidence games per the model, additionally
  • @cfb_vegas_line for the Tuesday (opening Vegas line)

Definition of high confidence is >= 7.5 points difference between Vegas line and computer model. Only applies after week 2 (weeks 3 till end of season)

Model will not be updated within a week (picks locked on Tuesday)

u/nevilleaga is going to pick all games using the trailing 15 weeks of data (meaning if it is week3 using week 1-2 data from 2023 and using week 3-17 data from 2022

use @CiscoNeville to mess with any personal ideas. One example is looking at the line and predicting something close to the line skewed by the method. @CiscoNeville will do that by using actual 2023 game results plus one extra week of the line as results. So for example if the OU-Iowa State line is OU – 14, a game will be entered with OU 14 IowaSt 0 like it actually happened.

Results published here as comments

update 9/28/23 – I realize that for weeks 2-4 I used and m of best for eta, not m of best against the spread. For week 5 and forward I will be using m=ATS model 6, which goes from m=-0.8 for a 1 point 1 to m=+0.5 for a 35+ point win.

2 thoughts on “Betting on the CFB 2023 season”

  1. Week 1 results –
    @PlPredict_all = 0.55 with MAE of 13.75
    @nevilleaga (using last year’s ratings) = .55 with MAE of 12.95

    @cfb_vegas_line = 0.50 with MAE of 11.10

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *