OK, I’ll start this one off by admitting this post is total procrastination. It is Friday morning and I should be doing something productive, but instead I want to look at the metrics for the 2025 OKC Thunder. The stock market is down another 2% today so don’t look there. My curiosity was peaked when on local sports radio I heard the announcer say that the game last week between OKC and the LA Clippers was the first one possession game OKC has played all year. It is late March. So, let’s dig through the numbers:
As I write this the Thunder are 61-12 with 9 regular season games left to go. They have already wrapped up the #1 seed in the Western conference, no other conference team has even locked up a playoff spot yet (!!) In 1-score games this year (defined as -3 >= final margin >= +3 and OT games) the Thunder are 1-4. So the radio talking head was wrong, it was not the Thunder’s first 1-possession game, it was just the 1st 1-possession game the Thunder have won. The Thunder are 6-2 in 2-possession games, and 54-6 in 3+ possession games. Here is the full record:
The record is sorted by point differential. OT games are boxed in, 1-possession games are in puke-yellow, and 2-possession games are in sea-foam-green. 3-possession+ games are in white.
The Thunder play a one-possession game about once a month. That is nuts. Compare the current champs, the Boston Celtics:
The Celtics have played twice as many 1-possession games (10) and won 7 of those.
So if you convert the Thunder’s 1-4 record in 1 possession games to 4-1 (or even better 5-0) then they would be 65-8 currently, and theoretically could win out to go 74-8. Only slightly crazy talk, because look at the 2016 Golden State Warriors:
Notice their good fortune in close games — they went 10-0 in games that were decided by 2-possessions. They even went 7-2 in 1 possession games, for a total of 17-2. Their 3+ possession record of 56-7 is going to end up being worse than the thunders, who could go as high as 63-6
It has been widely reported this year that OKCs average margin of victory (currently +13.1) is the largest in NBA history (all time). It handily beats the 2nd and 3rd best teams this year (Cleveland +10.4 and Boston +9.1). To put in perspective that those two are great numbers on their own, the 4th and 5th place teams this year are in the +4 range. It even handily beats Jordan’s 1995 Bulls (+12.3) and the 2015 GSW team (+10.8) that went 73-9. The current best all-time is the 71-21 Lakers at +13.9. But that need to be adjusted for pace — back in the 1970s there were many possessions per 48 minutes. No 3-point line, no offensive sets, just fast breaks and dunks (Showtime!). The metric that does this is Net Rating. Net rating adjusts for pace, making it possible to compare teams that play at different speeds. For example, a fast-paced team might have a good point differential simply because they play more possessions per game, while net rating would reveal if they’re actually more efficient on a per-possession basis. Here are the net-rating comparisons:
So, on a Net Rating basis, OKC is almost up +3 on 2016 GSW and even better than Jordan and the Bulls.
Neville’s Take:
So just how good are these Thunder? Let me make a prediction. The Thunder will be the first team to go 16-0 in the playoffs. It is very likely they sweep anyone in the West, and then the ECF will have Cleveland and Boston slug it out, the winner there being tired and no match for a rested, healthy Thunder. If you are in Vegas put some money on that prop bet and send a check my way for Father’s day. We all need it after the stock market today 🙂