Hey, hey — thanks to let’s encrypt and certbot, I have a full https site for https://football.playoffpredictor.com! Thanks DevNet and Derak Berreyesa!
playoffpredictor.com has as the computer top 4:
Which really makes sense, if you think about it. Georgia has a super-quality win over ND. Bama’s best win is over #38 Texas A&M. Wisconsin looks solid and Penn State’s one loss (1 point on the road) is a much better loss than tOSUs (15 points at home) or OUs (7 points at home).
I am expecting the committee to come out with:
- Bama #1
- Georgia #2
- Wisconsin #3
- Ohio State or ND #4
Right now there are 2 other unbeatens – UCF and Miami. Miami and Notre Dame play each other on Nov 11. What I am really interested to see is how the committee treats UCF. My computer has them at #5 – they have some very good wins — in fact, their best win is much better than Bama or Wisconsin’s best win. However, I suspect the committee will put them at about #20 in the initial poll. The way this season is shaking out UCF could be the only unbeaten in college football. I will really like to see if a rematch with Memphis and them winning the AAC would be enough to get a mid-major in.
Need to fill out a bracket? Use my NCAA bracket simulator! Building on last year’s attempt to come up with a perfect bracket and win Warren Buffet’s $1B (by the way, he didn’t offer the prize again this year), I am launching http://ncaa_bracket_simulator.agafamily.com The underlying idea is to give each team a number of virtual “Ping-Pong balls” based on your expectation of how well they will play. Give Kentucky 100 balls and the #16 seed 1 ball – that means 100 out of each 101 times Kentucky will win that contest and 1 time in 101 Hampton will pull the upset.
Say on the other side of the bracket you give Cincinnati and Purdue 50 balls each- that means the Cincinnati / Purdue game is a 50/50 proposition, and the winner will beat Kentucky 50 out of 150 (50+100), or 1 out of every 3 times. Think that’s too much? Then give Kentucky a higher rating or drop Cincinnati down.
The computer will use the ratings you give and randomly simulate an entire tournament for you. Fancy graphics? Well, no. Not yet. Give it a try for your bracket: ncaa_bracket_simulator.agafamily.com
As if ever there was a doubt…
Well, well — In a surprise move, the http://t.co/OKY8ULofBw machine predicts Ohio State takes the 4th spot, not TCU. FSU moves up to #3
— Neville Aga (@CiscoNeville) December 7, 2014
Couldn’t have got it more right, and got it right the instant the games went final.
In fact, the playoffPredictor.com site got every single top 4 for the entire season (with the exception of the initial poll, of course — that is needed to build the bias file between the computer ranking and the committee ranking).
playoffPredictor.com correctly predicted a lot of things the committe did this year, including:
- TCU over Alabama in the October poll
- Ohio State over TCU and Baylor in the final poll
Score 1 for big data and analytics!
Looking forward to keeping the site going next year. I’ll probably also do some other stuff now that the math is coded — such as comparing all teams in the BCS era. Stay tuned!